Madagascar and the military-led ousting of President Andry Rajoelina – a November 3rd update

Madagascar is currently undergoing a major political transition following the military-led ousting of President Andry Rajoelina, who fled the country in mid-October 2025 amid mass youth-led protests and a rebellion within the armed forces.

Current Status of Madagascar (as of November 2025):

🛑 President Andry Rajoelina Fled and Was Impeached

• Rajoelina fled Madagascar after elite military units joined Gen Z-led protests demanding his resignation over corruption, water and electricity shortages, and poor governance.
• He was impeached by Parliament (130–1 vote) and later stripped of Malagasy citizenship due to his dual French nationality. [abcnews.go.com]

✈️ Rajoelina was flown out of Madagascar aboard a French military aircraft [rfi.fr].

• This aligns with longstanding speculation about his dual French citizenship, which has been a point of controversy in Madagascar for years.
• The French Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the evacuation, but diplomatic and military sources confirmed the flight. [opb.org]

⚖️ Allegations and Indicators of Corruption:

• There is substantial evidence and widespread public perception that former Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina's regime was corrupt, although formal legal convictions against him personally have not been publicly confirmed.

1. Urban Megaprojects as Rent-Seeking Tools

• Rajoelina’s government invested heavily in large-scale infrastructure projects (e.g., cable cars, stadiums, new cities) that were:
• Poorly executed or unfinished
• Symbolic rather than practical
• Used to channel rents to political allies and consolidate power. [theconversation.com]

2. Elite Capture and Cronyism

• These projects were strategically placed and branded with regime colors, serving more as political spectacles than public services.
• The regime was accused of centralizing power and rewarding loyalty over merit, a hallmark of corrupt governance. [theconversation.com]

3. Arrest of Close Advisor for Money Laundering

• Rajoelina’s former advisor, Maminiaina Ravatomanga, was arrested in Mauritius for allegedly laundering $163 million through assets in the country.
• He was reportedly managing entities linked to Rajoelina’s network, suggesting financial misconduct at the highest levels. [africanews.com]

🕵️‍♂️ Current Status:

• Rajoelina appeared in a video broadcast from an undisclosed location, stating he had sought a “safe place” due to what he described as a murder attempt and an “illegal coup”. [aljazeera.com]
• He attempted to dissolve the National Assembly from exile, but this was rejected by lawmakers, who proceeded to impeach him.

🪖 Military Takeover

• Colonel Michael Randrianirina of the elite CAPSAT unit was appointed interim president by the High Constitutional Court.
• The military suspended key institutions, including the Senate, the electoral commission, and the constitutional court, and announced a two-year transition period with plans for a constitutional referendum and elections. [aljazeera.com]

🏛️ New Government Formation

• A transitional government has been formed, including both reformists and figures from previous regimes.
• The new cabinet includes former opposition leaders, exiles, and military figures. Notably, Fanirisoa Ernaivo, a former presidential candidate and political refugee in France, is now Minister of Justice. [theafricareport.com]

🌍 International Reaction

• The African Union (AU) suspended Madagascar from all activities, citing an unconstitutional change of government.
• The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has taken a more conciliatory approach, sending mediators to support a peaceful transition. [issafrica.org]

⚠️ Challenges Ahead

• Madagascar faces massive reconstruction needs, with billions of dollars required to repair infrastructure, restore services, and rebuild institutions.
• Transparency International and civil society groups have warned of early signs of impunity, including the release of convicted officials without judicial oversight. [theafricareport.com]

SOURCES

• https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/former-madagascar-president-andry-rajoelina-stripped-citizenship-after-126890877
• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/14/madagascar-president-dissolves-parliament-after-fleeing-army-backed-protest
• https://www.theafricareport.com/396467/new-madagascar-president-randrianirina-recycles-some-of-the-old-guard-in-cabinet/
• https://issafrica.org/iss-today/au-suspension-of-madagascar-raises-more-questions-than-answers
• https://www.africanews.com/2025/10/25/madagascar-strips-ex-president-rajoelina-of-citizenship-as-former-aid-arrested-for-money-l/